Dennis Ross, formerly President Barack Obama's chief adviser on Iran. Photographer: Rich Clement/Bloomberg[/caption]Six world powers and Iran are unlikely to conclude a deal to curtail Irans suspected nuclear weapons program by the Nov. 24 deadline, President Barack Obamas former adviser on Iran said.
Were likely to have an extension of the current interim deal, Dennis Ross said yesterday at Bloombergs The Year Ahead: 2015 conference in Washington. Theres some, I think, potential for a breakthrough by the 24th, but theres not enough time to take that and turn it into a detailed arrangement.
So even if you get some kind of a breakthrough, youre still going to have an extension of the existing agreement, and if you dont get it, what you are probably going to hear is both sides will say weve made enough progress that it justifies continuing, said Ross, whos now counselor at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a policy research group.
His comments came days after an unsuccessful round of talks among U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, former European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in the Omani capital of Muscat. Diplomats said those talks failed to make headway toward resolving the differences that stand in the way of a deal, including the extent of permitted uranium enrichment activity and the timing for lifting EU, United Nations and U.S. economic sanctions on Iran.
Next Round
The next round of negotiations is scheduled to begin in Vienna Nov. 18, with foreign ministers from the P5+1 nations expected to participate later in the week as the deadline nears. Those nations are the five United Nations Security Council permanent members -- China, France, Russia, the U.K. and the U.S., plus Germany.
Ross said that a deal with Iran would have regional implications, particularly with Sunni regional powers that consider Shiite Iran their enemy with its influence in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon.
If we do a deal with the Iranians, it heightens the suspicion all the Sunnis -- the Saudis, the Emiraties, the Kuwaitis, the Jordanians, he said. These are all the actors youre going to need, along with the Sunni tribes to discredit and defeat Islamic state, he added.
If the U.S. does a nuclear deal with Iran then youre going to have to compensate in some respect to reassure the Sunnis, such as doing more against the Iranian-backed Assad regime in Syria, he said.
By Bloomberg
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