The Ukraine crisis jeopardizes PresidentBarack Obamas efforts to enlist Russias cooperation on a range of issues, including seeking an end toSyrias civil war, halting Irans nuclear ambitions and facilitating the withdrawal of U.S. and allied forces fromAfghanistan.If the presidents handling of the crisis reinforces doubts about his toughness in addressing foreign challenges, as some critics assert, it could affect a more diverse range of issues: Israeli-Palestinian peace talks,North Koreas nuclear weapons advances andChinas increasingly aggressive regional posture.
The tense situation in Ukraine, with its echoes of theCold War, has put Obama at the forefront of the crisis as European leaders pressure Russia to drop military threats and withdraw forces from Ukraines Crimea region.
President Obama faces the most difficult international crisis of his presidency, former U.S. Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns said in a conference call with reporters yesterday organized by the Atlantic Council, a foreign-policy research organization based inWashington.
In addition to a growing confrontation with Russia, Obama faces an increasingly assertive China that is pressing territorial disputes and stirring rising nationalism in Japan andSouth Korea; resurgent Islamic extremism in Syria, Iraq, and northern Africa; the nuclear negotiations with Iran and unrest in nations such asEgypt, Venezuela and Thailand.
Meets Netanyahu
The president is scheduled today to meet Israeli Prime MinisterBenjamin Netanyahu, who has differed with Obama on how hard to press Iran on curbing its nuclear program and how flexible to be in negotiations with the Palestinians.
While moving diplomatically to pressure Russia, Obama is wise to recognize the limits on the U.S. in this crisis and elsewhere, such as with Syria and China, said Richard Andres, a professor of national security strategy at the U.S. National War College in Washington.
This is one example of where we have reached the limits of our geopolitical power, he said in a phone interview. Weve seen a number of these situations recently, such as in Syria, where we made the decision not to intervene -- which is something we wouldnt have done in years past. For the last 20 or 25 years, we have seldom seen a crisis that we did not try to intervene in.
This crisis highlights the need for the U.S. to adopt a realistic policy toward Russia consistent with the limits of American power, Andres said.
Putin Call
The Obama administration portrayed the president as forthright in his 90-minute phone call on March 1 with Russian PresidentVladimir Putin, at a time when foreign allies have publicly expressed worries that the U.S. is withdrawing from its international leadership role.
The president was very strong on the point that Russia needs to roll back this invasion, Kerry said yesterday on CBS Face the Nation broadcast. He made absolutely clear that this was unacceptable and that there will be serious repercussions if this stands.
A former U.S. ambassador to theSoviet Union, Jack Matlock, called that approach ill-advised because it fails to take into account the Russian leaders psychology.
Whatever slim hope that Moscow might avoid overt military intervention in Ukraine disappeared when Obama in effect threw down a gauntlet and challenged him, Matlock, who was ambassador in the final years of the Soviet Union from 1987 to 1991, wrote in acommentaryon his website.
Vital Interest
Burns differed, saying it was important for the U.S. to make clear that Russias military assault on Ukraine strikes at a vital U.S. interest, which is a free and stable Europe. The Obama administration shouldnt be cowed by worries about Russias response on other issues, where it could interfere, he said.
The U.S. and Russia had some accomplishments early in Obamas first term, including the New Start treaty to reduce nuclear weapons and Russias membership in theWorld Trade Organization. A June 2010 White House fact sheet on the results of Obamas effort to reset the relationship listed 17 areas of cooperation, including on Iran, North Korea, Afghanistan, trade and military-to-military engagement.
Any reset in U.S.-Russia relations now has vanished to the point where Kerry yesterday responded to a question from David Gregory, moderator of NBCs Meet the Press, by saying, Well, I dont know what you mean by the reset.
Deteriorating relations with Russia threaten to jeopardize other U.S. foreign policy priorities.
Russian Intransigence
Greater Russian intransigence and stepped-up aid to the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad would make it harder to implement the agreement to remove all of Syrias chemical weapons, saidIan Bremmer, president of the New York-based Eurasia Group consulting firm.
Obama also needs Putin to get American and allied forces and equipment home from Afghanistan because the U.S. depends on Russia for part of its Northern Distribution Network.
The network of supply routes is of great value, and it depends on Russia, said Daniel Serwer of the Center for Transatlantic Relations at Johns Hopkins Universitys School of Advanced International Studies in Washington.
Obamas second-term plan to seek further cuts in U.S. and Russian long-range nuclear arsenals has been thwarted by Putins opposition to the U.S. missile defense system being deployed in Europe and by evidence that Russia may be violating the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty by testing a ground-launched cruise missile.
New Isolationism
The presidents efforts to end the U.S. wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, to cut the U.S. military budget and reduce the federal deficit, and to focus on domestic issues have been watched closely by foreign nations. Polls have found that Americans want to pull back from foreign commitments, and that mood carries over to much of theU.S. Congressin this mid-term election year.
Kerry, speaking to reporters last week in Washington, decried what he called a new isolationism in the U.S., saying Americans dont perceive the connection between U.S. engagement abroad and the American economy.
Obamas partisan critics, such as RepublicanSenator Lindsey Grahamof South Carolina, have said Obamas limited credibility abroad may have emboldened Putin to use military means to keep Ukraine in Russias political and economic orbit.
Every time the president goes on national television and threatens Putin or anyone like Putin, everybodys eyes roll, including mine, Graham said on CNNs State of the Union yesterday. We have a weak and indecisive president that invites aggression.
Weakness Abroad
Republicans such as Graham and SenatorJohn McCainof Arizona and some U.S. allies such as Saudi Arabia have said Obama has shown weakness abroad, pointing to his backing off his own red line threatening military strikes against the Syrian regime for using chemical weapons.
Obama disputed that view in an interview released yesterday with Bloomberg View columnistJeffrey Goldberg. He said the threat of kinetic strikes was enough to get Syria to give up its chemical weapons in a deal brokered by Russia.
Now the truth is, some of our commentators or friends in the region, their complaint is not that somehow we indicated an unwillingness to use military force in the region, Obama said in the Feb. 27 interview. Their complaint is that I did not choose to go ahead, even if we could get a deal on chemical weapons, to hit them anyway as a means of getting rid of Assad.
As for Iran, Obama said hes certain its leaders believe his threat to force if it seeks to acquire nuclear weapons.
I know they take it seriously, he said.
By Bloomberg
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