Al-Monitor | Maysam Bizaer: Amid hopes among many Iranians that the 2015 nuclear deal would revive Iran�s economy after years of isolation, trade ties began to expand � including with the United States. For instance, according to data released by the US Census Bureau, with the removal of sanctions in 2016, Iranian exports to the United States � chiefly consisting of carpets, caviar and pistachios � increased over 700% from $10.7 million in 2015 to over $87.7 million in 2016. However, Iran�s exports to the United States in 2017 dropped again to some $63 million and remained relatively in the same range ($68 million) from January to November 2018, when US oil and banking sanctions against Iran were reimposed in the aftermath of President Donald Trump�s withdrawal from the nuclear deal.

Although tensions between the US and Iran have increased since Trump came to power, a closer look at the US Census data reveals that despite a relatively stable import rate from Iran since 2016, US exports to Iran � which had been sliding since the nuclear deal was implemented in 2016 � saw a turnaround last year, paradoxically after Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal. Indeed, US exports to Iran have witnessed a sudden spike since July 2018, coinciding with China�s decision to impose retaliatory import tariffs on US agricultural goods.

Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, the founder of Bourse & Bazaar, which tracks developments in Iran�s economy, told Al-Monitor, �The only reason that the 2018 export total is so high is that there is a surplus of soybeans in the American market due to the China-US trade war. Some of this surplus has been diverted for export to Iran, adding hundreds of millions of dollars to the export totals over the year.�

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