Sputnik- On Sunday, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration was looking to 'drive a wedge' between Russia and Iran in its effort to improve relations with Moscow while confronting Tehran. Multiple observers, from Russian foreign policy analysts to American paleo-conservatives, warn that a US-Iran clash would be a catastrophic mistake.




Citing unnamed senior officials in�the Trump administration, as�well as�European and Arab country officials, the Wall Street Journal piece noted that the White House was trying to�balance the "seemingly contradictory vows to�improve relations with�Russian President Vladimir Putin and to�aggressively challenge the military presence of�Iran � one of�Moscow's most critical allies � in�the Middle East."


"If there's a wedge to�be driven between�Russia and Iran, we're willing to�explore that," a senior administration official reportedly told the newspaper.
Moscow almost immediately responded to�the WSJ piece, calling it little more than "unfounded speculation," and an attempt to�poison relations between�Washington and Moscow before�they ever have a chance to�improve. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said that the Wall Street Journal was the one trying to "drive a wedge" between�the two powers.


Russian political observers have been similarly cautious. Boris Dolgov, a senior fellow at�the Moscow-based Center for�Arab and Islamic Studies at�the Russian Institute of�Oriental Studies, told�RIA Novosti that Moscow must make every effort to�assure both the US and its allies that Iran is not a threat.


"Such statements in�the American press should probably be taken quite seriously," the expert said. "But I think that Russia, for�its part, must work to�try and influence Washington's thinking about�Iran posing a threat to�the United States and its ally Israel."


Presenting Tehran as�a threat to�Washington's security is simply "wrong," Dolgov added. "The Iranians themselves have repeatedly said that the main reason behind�their confrontation with�Israel is the Palestinian issue. If a solution to�that issue is found, the conflict will in�many respects be settled. However, its existence facilitates the promotion of�this aggressive rhetoric."
For his part, Radio Sputnik contributor Ilya Kharlamov emphasized that while Western observers are now trying to 'read the tea leaves' for�hints about�what it will take for�Russia to�break its partnership with�Iran in�Washington's favor, "the fact is that the Russia-Turkey-Iran format [of cooperation] is playing a more and more important role in�resolving the Syrian crisis, and none of�the members of�this triumvirate have any plans to�break it."


With this in�mind, the commentator recalled that the Kremlin has already�responded�in disagreement to�Trump's recent statement that Iran was the "number one terrorist state," and added that Moscow intends to�continue to�develop and expand its relationship with�Tehran.


Ultimately, Kharlamov suggested that so long as�Washington does not clearly define their priorities on�the Iran issue, or continues to�make cryptic comments about�the country being 'put on�notice' without�clarification, speculation, rumors and theories of�the kind found in�the Wall Street Journal story will continue.
"Trump's people simply have not yet had the time to�get a full grasp on�all the intricacies on�foreign policy," the journalist suggested. As a result, "one simply needs to�gather patience, and let others write articles with�all sorts of�dubious conspiracy theories."


CIS Institute Deputy director Vladimir Yevseyev, meanwhile, thinks that while Trump may realize, at�some level, that the Russian-Iranian coalition has been highly effective against�Daesh, his ties to�Israel may now be pushing him toward�confrontation with�Tehran.

"The Israeli lobby assisted Donald Trump during�his election campaign," the analyst noted. "He may have certain obligations to�the state of�Israel � toward�fulfilling those promises that he gave them during�the campaign. In any case, the restoration of�close ties with�Israel is one of�the most likely vectors of�the new administration's foreign policy."
Yevseyev noted that as�far as�Moscow was concerned, "Russia's relations with�Iran, just like�its relations with�China or other countries, must not be considered in�the context of�Russian-US relations. The same is true for�US relations with�these countries. These are various tracks which should not be crossed. If the Kremlin holds out�on its position, it will be able to�continue mutually beneficial cooperation with�Iran, including in�the military sphere, and to�ignore the 'signals' coming from�overseas."


For his part, Experimental Creative Center Vice President Yuri Bialy noted that he could not help but�get the impression that these 'leaks' to�the Wall Street Journal were coming from�forces, perhaps even from�inside Trump's own team, which are not interested in�normalization between�Moscow and Washington, and hence are trying to�put Washington in�an stalemate.


Whether that is the case or not, Yevseyev noted that the worsening in�relations between�Washington and Tehran was extremely alarming. Washington's rhetoric may influence the political situation in�the Middle Eastern country, including in�the presidential elections, set for�May, and force President Hassan Rouhani into�a more conservative position. In that case, the analyst noted, a growing mutual enmity may eventually lead to�open confrontation.

Russian observers' assessment has generally been matched by�US paleo-conservatives, who supported Trump as�the candidate who could save�the country from�endless wars in�the Middle East. In his column for�The American Conservative, veteran paleo-con commentator Pat Buchanan warned Trump against�escalating the conflict with�Iran, particularly if it has to�do with�trivial issues like�missile testing or Riyadh's military adventurism in�Yemen.
"The problem with�making a threat public [of putting Iran] 'on notice' � is that it makes it almost impossible for�Iran, or Trump, to�back away," Buchanan noted, referring to�National Security Advisor Michael Flynn's remarks last week at�a press briefing following�Tehran's missile testing. "Tehran seems almost obliged to�defy [the US], especially the demand that it cease testing conventional missiles for�its own defense," the commentator added. The threat also increases the probability of�the architects of�the nuclear deal, including President Rouhani, are "thrown out [of office] in�this year's election."


Buchanan recalled that "high among�the reasons that many supported Trump was his understanding that George W. Bush blundered horribly in�launching an unprovoked and unnecessary war in�Iraq."


"Along with�the 15-year war in�Afghanistan and our wars in�Libya, Syria and Yemen, our 21st- century US Mideast wars have cost us trillions of�dollars and thousands dead. And they have produced a harvest of�hatred of�America that was exploited by�al-Qaeda and ISIS to�recruit jihadists to�murder and massacre Westerners."


"Osama's bin Laden's greatest achievement was not to�bring down�the twin towers and kill 3,000 Americans, but�to goad America into�plunging headlong into�the Middle East, a reckless and ruinous adventure that ended her post-Cold War global primacy," the observer emphasized. "Unlike the other candidates, Trump seemed to�recognize this."

"It was thought he would disengage us from�these wars, not rattle a saber at�an Iran that is three times the size of�Iraq and has as�its primary weapons supplier and partner Vladimir Putin's Russia," Buchanan added.

Hopefully, the Trump administration will realize the danger of�such an openly confrontational policy, and correct course before�the verbal sabre-rattling turns into�something more serious.