Iran will get too much

Once Iran learned how to make a nuke, there wasn�t much chance for a really good and reassuring deal on the nuclear issue. The agreement being negotiated now may well be the least bad of the terrible options available to slow Iran�s nuclear program. But we should be clear-eyed about what else we may be getting from this deal: a richer and stronger Iran, one pushing for a Middle East more hostile to the U.S.�and one that will still retain the capacity to build nuclear weapons.

It�s the cruelest of ironies that this issue is now the pathway offering Iran a way in from the cold. It would be fine if the agreement could truly end Iran�s ability and motivation to have a nuclear-weapons option. But it hardly lays to rest those concerns.

Iran will agree to what will likely be a smaller, more easily monitored nuclear program. But there can be no real assurance, let alone guarantee, that this will be the �forever� deal Secretary of State John Kerry referred to. What is guaranteed�what will be the new normal in the Middle East�is that Iran will emerge as a state with the right to enrich uranium and continue R&D while maintaining some nuclear infrastructure. Iran has played us and its card well, profiting from sanctions relief without abandoning its nuclear-weapons aspirations, let alone its repressive policies at home or its expansionist aims abroad.

The Obama Administration argues that regardless of Iran�s behavior in the region, constraining Tehran�s nuclear program is important in its own right. But Iran is not Japan, a nuclear threshold state that respects international principles. It�s impossible to separate the nuclear issue from Iran�s regional aspirations. Keeping the world on edge about Iran�s nuclear-weapons capacity and ensuring that the U.S. remains an adversary are still vital for the regime�s survival�and this agreement isn�t going to make Iran a moderate anytime soon.

The nuclear deal will bring Iran money and legitimacy in a turbulent region. Iran has influence on just about every issue the U.S. confronts in the Middle East: Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, ISIS, Yemen. And while Tehran is prepared to cooperate when that serves its interests, its view of the region is not Washington�s. Far from constraining Iran�s power, the deal may well enhance it as it directs more resources to its Iraqi Shi�ite, Yemeni Houthi, Syrian Alawite and Hizballah allies and surrogates. And the opening to Iran has alienated Saudi Arabia and Israel, U.S. allies who fear Iran�s rise.

Were there alternatives to the deal? Tougher sanctions and negotiating? A more compelling threat to use force or more aggressively confront Iran�s allies? We�ll never know. The deal may succeed in slowing Iran�s nuclear program. But sooner or later, some future U.S. President is bound to confront a richer, stronger, more influential Iran, one with nuclear weapons still within its reach.

Miller is a former Middle East negotiator and adviser in Democratic and Republican administrations

By Time