Anew studypublished this week by the National Iranian American Council argues that the various tradesanctions the United States has maintained on Iran for more than a decade actually hurts the American economy. The NIAC, a U.S.-based organization that pushes for apeaceful resolution of differencesbetween Washington and Tehran, calculated that between 1995 and 2012, the United Stateshas forfeited between $135 billion and $175 billion in export revenue as a consequence of not doing business with the Islamic Republic.The NIAC's researchers used aneconometric gravity modelto gauge the losses faced by the United Statesand European Union membernations as they enforced economic sanctions on the Iranian regime,which many governments suspect is moving towards building a nuclear weapon. The study found that not only have sanctions deprivedthe United Statesand E.U.countries export revenue (see NIAC chart below), but alsocost them jobs.
In the United States alone,writeresearcher Jonathan Leslie, NIAC director of research Reza Marashi, and NIAC president Trita Parsi, "this lost export revenue translates into between 51,043 and 66,436 job opportunities lost per year on average. In 2008 alone, as many as 214,657 to 279,389 job opportunities were relinquished."
Some expressed doubt about the importance of these findings. A Treasury Department spokeswoman toldthe Wall Street Journalthat such a cost was "well worth bearing, particularly when faced with the prospect of an Iranian nuclear weapon."She added that the mooted figure of $175 billion reflects only 1percentof U.S. exports in that period and that the political realities of Iran's relationship with the United Stateswould have made trade difficult, regardless of sanctions.
Iranian officials and those from Western powers are currently in the midst ofa new round of talksin Vienna over a nuclear deal. Sanctions relief is on the table in exchange for concessions from Iran that would amount to guarantees on the peaceful nature of thecountry's nuclear program. Opponents of a deal with Iran argue for even more intense sanctions to keep Tehran in check, but it's unclear whether the very real toll of sanctions would change Iran's calculus on its nuclear program, which is a source of national pride.
The NIAC, as it concludes in its report, wants those pushing for more sanctions to be aware of their full costs:
As U.S. diplomats negotiate a deal with Tehranover its nuclear program, some will ask whetherthe deal is good enough to 'give up sanctions.' But decision-makers must also ask themselves ifthe cost of sanctions to the U.S. economy is worthshouldering if other options do exist.
This article was written byIshaan Tharoor for the blog of The Washington Post on July 16,2014. Ishaan Tharoor writes about foreign affairs for The Washington Post. He previously was a Senior Editor at TIME, based first in Hong Kong and later in New York.
The Iran Project is not responsible for the content of quoted articles.
